Institute of Development Studies

The Impact of Trade on Employment and Income in Brazil

The project contributes to a collaboration between the International Labour Organization and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace aimed at providing a detailed analysis of the impact of prospective changes in the multilateral and regional trade environment on employment and income in Brazil. A global computable general equilibrium model is used to explore the impact of a potential WTO Doha Development Round agreement, an enlargement and deepening of the MERCOSUR customs union, and other potential South-South trade agreements, including a free trade area among India, Brazil and South Africa (IBSA) as well as preferential trade relations between IBSA and China. Furthermore, the simulation analysis studies the implications of rapid manufacturing productivity growth in China and India for Brazil's trade and employment patterns.

A report is produced to disseminate the research results and policy implications. The intended audience of the report is policy makers, direct stakeholders including business and labour, and the interested community in Brazil and internationally.

• IDS key contact: Dirk Willenbockel
• Project dates: November 2007 - February 2008
• Project status: Closed
• Funder: International Labour Organisation (ILO); Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Researchers

• Dirk Willenbockel

Selected Outputs

• Polaski, S., de Souza Ferreira Filho, J., Berg, J., McDonald, S., Thierfelder, K., Willenbockel, D. and Zepeda, E. (2009) 'Brazil in the Global Economy. Measuring the Gains from Trade' , Washington DC/Geneva: Carnegie Endowment for International Peace/International Labour Office
• Polaski, S., de Souza Ferreira Filho, J., Berg, J., McDonald, S., Thierfelder, K., Willenbockel, D. and Zepeda, E. (2009) 'O Brasil na Economia Mundial: Medindo os Ganhos Comerciais' , Brasilia: ILO
• McDonald, S. and Willenbockel, D. (2008) 'India, Brazil, South Africa and China: Is the South Big Enough?', 11th Annual Conference on Global Economic Analysis , Helsinki:
• McDonald, S. and Willenbockel, D. (2008) 'India, Brazil, South Africa and China: Is the South Big Enough?' in Bayar, A. (eds), Proceedings International Conference on Policy Modelling - ECOMOD 2008 Berlin, Florence, MA: EcoMod Press
• McDonald, S. and Willenbockel, D. (2008) 'A Study of the Impact of Trade on Employment and Income in Brazil: Research using a Global CGE Model' , Report for the International Labour Organization and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace