Institute of Development Studies

The New Bottom Billion

'Where do the poor live?'

New IDS research shows that the global poverty 'problem' is changing. There is a new 'bottom billion' of 960m poor people or 72 per cent of the world's poor who live not in poor countries but in middle-income countries (MICs). This is a dramatic change from just two decades ago, when 93 per cent of poor people lived in low-income countries (LICs). 

This isn’t just about India and China and the findings are consistent across monetary, nutritional and multi-dimensional poverty measures. Contrary to earlier estimates that a third of the poor live in fragile states, our estimate is about 23 per cent, and they are split fairly evenly between fragile LICs and fragile MICs. These findings raise questions not only about the definitions of country categories, the future of poverty reduction in heterogeneous contexts, the role of inequality and structural societal change, and about aid and development policy. One read of the data is that poverty is increasingly turning from an international to a national distribution problem, and that governance and domestic taxation and redistribution policies become of more importance than overseas development assistance(ODA).

Project question: What does the new bottom billion mean for poverty reduction, aid and development policy?

Visualisation from the Guardian Development Blog

DATA: Download the full spreadsheet

• IDS key contact: Andy Sumner
• Project dates: January 2011 - Ongoing
• Project status: Open
• Funder: Department for International Development (DFID)

Researchers

• Andy Sumner

Partner Organisations

• Centre for Global Development (CGD)
• School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS)
• SMERU Research Institute, Indonesia
• The Centre for Analysis and Forecasting, Vietnamese Academy of Social Sciences

Selected Outputs

• Carbonnier, G. and Sumner, A. (2012) 'Reframing Aid in a World Where the Poor Live in Emerging Economies', International Development Policy , Geneva: Palgrave Macmillan
• Gentilini, U. and Sumner, A (2012) 'What do National Poverty Lines tell us about Global Poverty?' , Brighton: IDS
• Sumner, A., Suryahadi, A. and Thang, N. (2012) 'Poverty and Inequalities in Middle-Income Southeast Asia' , Brighton: IDS
• Sumner, A. and Mallett, R. (2012) 'Aid: A Survey in Light of Changes in the Distribution of Global Poverty' , Brighton: IDS
• Sumner, A. (2012) 'Global Poverty and the “New Bottom Billion” Revisited: Exploring The Paradox That Most Of The World’s Extreme Poor No Longer Live In The World’s Poorest Countries'
• Sumner, A. (2012) ' Is Global Poverty Rapidly Becoming A Matter Of National Inequality? IDS: Brighton' , IDS
• Sumner, A. (2011) 'Poverty in Middle-Income Countries' , Brighton: IDS
• Sumner, A. (2011) 'Poverty in Middle-Income Countries', Bellagio Initiative Briefing Summary , Brighton: IDS
• Glassman, A., Duran, D. and Sumner, A. (2011) 'Global Health and the New Bottom Billion: What Do Shifts in Global Poverty and the Global Disease Burden Mean for GAVI and the Global Fund?', CGD Working Paper 270, Washington, DC: Center for Global Development
• Sumner, A. (2011) 'Where Do The Poor Live?', World Development (In Press), Amsterdam: Elsevier
• Kanbur, R. and Sumner, A. (2011) 'Poor Countries or Poor People? Development Assistance and the New Geography of Global Poverty', CEPR Discussion Paper 8489, London: Centre for Economic Policy Research
• Sumner, A. (2011) 'Where do the Poor Live? An Update' , Brighton: IDS
• Sumner, A. (2011) 'The New Bottom Billion: What If Most of the World’s Poor Live in Middle-Income Countries?', Centre for Global Development (CGD) Policy Brief , Washington, DC: CGD
• Kanbur, R. and Sumner, A. (2011) 'Poor Countries or Poor People? Development Assistance and the New Geography of Global Poverty', Charles H. Dyson School of Applied Economics and Management Working Paper , Ithaca, NY: Cornell University
• Sumner, A. (2010) 'Global Poverty and the New Bottom Billion: Three-quarters of the World's Poor Live in Middle-income Countries', IDS Working Paper 349, Brighton: IDS
• Sumner, A. (2010) 'The New Bottom Billion and the MDGs – A Plan of Action', IDS In Focus Policy Briefing 16.1, Brighton: IDS
• Sumner, A. (2010) 'Global poverty and the new bottom billion: Three-quarters of the World’s poor live in middle-income countries' , Brighton: IDS