Institute of Development Studies

Food Security: The Challenge of Feeding 9 Billion People

29 January 2010

More than one in seven people today still do not have enough protein and energy in their diet, and even more suffer some form of malnourishment. Solving this problem is daunting but it can be done, according to a new paper published in the journal Science. The article is authored by the Government Chief Scientific Adviser, John Beddington, and the lead experts advising the Foresight Project on Global Food and Farming Futures - including IDS Director, Lawrence Haddad, and IDS Fellow, Sherman Robinson.

The challenge of nine billion people

The world's population is likely to plateau at around nine billion sometime in the middle of this century. One of the major reasons for this deceleration in population growth is increased wealth. But with higher purchasing power comes a greater demand for processed food, meat, dairy and fish. This will add pressure to a food supply system already squeezed for clean water, energy and land and likely to be impacted by global climate change.

This challenge will require radical changes

The challenge of feeding nine billion is not insurmountable, according to this paper, despite growing competition for land, water and energy. But matching the demand of a growing and more affluent population, securing the sustainability of supply and ensuring that the world's poorest people are no longer hungry will require 'changes in the way food is produced, stored, processed, distributed and accessed that are as radical as those that occurred during the 18th-19th century industrial and agricultural revolutions and the 20th century Green Revolution.'

The paper lays out a plan for meeting these challenges in a way that's environmentally and socially sustainable. There must be a 'multifaceted and linked global strategy,' which should first close the 'yield gap' between how much food is actually being produced and how much could be produced with available technology and farming practices. Beyond this it should work to increase production limits, reduce waste, change diets, and expand aquaculture. 'The goal is no longer just to maximize productivity, but to optimize across a far more complex landscape of production, environmental sand social justice outcomes.'

Foresight

Foresight is part of the Government Office for Science and reports directly to the Government Chief Scientific Adviser and the Cabinet Office. Its role is to help the government think systematically about the future. The main aim of this particular project is to consider how the global food and farming system may look by 2050, and which models could be put in place to address the future challenges. Sherman Robinson and Lawrence Haddad, prominent development economists, have been active members of the Lead Expert Group (LEG), working alongside scientists and other academics.

Image: Sven Torfinn/ Panos

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