Institute of Development Studies

The Southern Sudan Referendum: Africa's Political Event of the Year

1 February 2011 - Luka Biong Deng

The referendum being conducted in Sudan will put an end to the continuous struggle by the people of southern Sudan since the country's independence in 1956. The preliminary results announced on Sunday indicated that nearly 99% of southern Sudanese voters chose secession. So far the referendum has surprised many observers who expected the process to be bloody and to fall below international standards of fairness and transparency. In fact, the people have shown the world that they can express their choice not only with determination but also civility.

Responses to the final outcome

But there are still challenges ahead. Although there is much optimism that the referendum will end peacefully, the way the leadership of the North will accept the result will determine the final outcome. While the North of the country would like the referendum to confirm unity, President Bashir of Sudan recently assured the people of Southern Sudan that he will not only accept the outcome of the referendum, but that he will also support the building of the new state if the choice is secession. Of course, it remains to be seen whether he will keep to his word once the full results have been declared.

In the case of secession, large numbers of southern settlers in the North may be at risk from attacks, while in Southern Sudan, the announcement could trigger violence towards the remaining Northern Sudanese living there. The Southern Sudan President, General Salva Kiir, has unambiguously made a commitment not only to protect the lives and properties of northerners in the South, but to give them an option to choose to become citizens of the new state.

Referendum in Abyei

But there is one final challenge which the whole outcome of the referendum, and the future for Southern Sudan, rests upon – a simultaneous referendum in which the people of the Abyei area that lies along the North-South border will decide whether to continue to be administered in the North or to join the administration of the South.

The Abyei area and its people were transferred from the South to the North in 1905 to protect the Ngok Dinka from slave raids and attack on their properties by Misseriyia arab nomads in Kordofan. In 2005, the CPA sought to define and demarcate the area of Ngok Dinka through the Abyei Boundaries Commission with its decision agreed by the parties to be final and binding. However, when the CPA presented its report to the Presidency, the ruling National Congress Party (NCP) rejected the decision and contested the Commission's mandate.

Despite the Permanent Court of Arbitration in the Hague finally resolving the issue of ownership of the Abyei area, the NCP has consistently obstructed the demarcation of the area because it is rich with oil. In addition to this, the party have also been using the Miseeriya arab nomads, who move seasonally from the North to the South and Abyei during the dry season for pasture and grazing rights, in counterinsurgency warfare in the South: raising nomad expectations of ownership of the Abyei area as a reward and to appease them from joining Darfur rebels who will recruit them if war erupts again.

Leading the way

The secession of Southern Sudan will not only set a precedent for many African countries facing regional demands for the right to self-determination but no doubt the rest of Sudan. Depending on the way the political leadership of the remaining Sudan will handle the issues of governance, diversity and religion, the predominately African states such as Darfur, Nuba Mountains, Eastern Sudan and Blue Nile may opt to struggle for this right. There are now growing voices from some Islamic extremists calling for the remaining Sudan to be redefined only within the Arabo-Islamic paradigm and some are even suggesting to rename the remaining country from the current name of 'Sudan' that means 'state of blacks'.

An African success story?

A newly born state of Southern Sudan would certainly face many challenges, but it would also have a clear vision and a unifying political leadership. Although some analysts and journalists may paint it as a failed state before it is born, the South stands a better chance of becoming a viable state than the remaining Sudan. What the South lacks most is capacity to manage its enormous resources. But with support from the international community and effective mobilisation of its diaspora, the new state of South Sudan could emerge as the fastest growing economy on the African continent.

Luka Biong Deng is Minister of Cabinet Affairs, Khartoum, Sudan and a former DPhil student at IDS.

A shorter version of this article was published in The Guardian.