Dirk Willenbockel - Research Fellow
Globalisation
T:
+44 (0)1273 915700
E:
d.willenbockel@ids.ac.uk
Administrator:
Stacey Townsend
Thematic Expertise:
Business; Climate Change; Low-carbon Development; Economy and Finance; Trade and Growth; Food Security.
Geographic Expertise:
Sub Saharan Africa.
Development economist with over 20 years experience in trade policy and regional economic integration analysis. Internationally recognised expert in computable general equilibrium (CGE) modelling (dynamic and comparative-static models, single country and global multi region models, models with imperfect competition).
Previous research and lecturing positions in London and Berlin. Consultancy for the European Commission, World Bank, ILO, Rockefeller Foundation, UN World Food Programme, UNDP, GIZ, UK Government for Science.
The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) hosted by the Columbia University Earth Institute is a major international effort to assess the state of global agricultural modeling and to understand climate impacts on the agricultural sector. AgMIP's mission is to improve substantially the characterization of world food security as affected by climate variability and change, and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries.
As part of this initiative, the global economic modeling component of AgMIP is engaging ten leading global agricultural models from around the world in a cross-model scenario comparison exercise. The focus of the comparative analysis is on long-run model projections for the evolution of the global food system towards 2050 under a specified common set of exogenous drivers of change for a standardized set of regions and variables. Dirk Willenbockel supports IFPRI and the OECD in the organisation and coordination of the exercise by contributing to scenario specifications and protocols, data handling software development, liaising with the modelling teams and analyzing the results.
The study analysed the trade and welfare implications of the Cariforum Economic Partnership Agreement using a multi-regional computable general equilibrium model as well as a single-region general equilibrium model of Jamaica.
Rationale and Objective:
Due to the high concentration of economic activity along the low-lying coastal zone of the Nile delta and its dependence on Nile river streamflow, Egypt's economy is highly exposed to adverse climate change. Adaptation planning requires a forward-looking assessment of climate change impacts on economic performance at economy-wide and sectoral level and a cost-benefit assessment of conceivable adaptation investments. The study aims to demonstrate the usefulness of an intertemporal computable general equilibrium modelling approach for such an assessment.
Methodology:
This study develops a multisectoral intertemporal general equilibrium model with forward-looking agents, population growth and technical progress to analyse the long-run growth prospects of Egypt in a changing climate. Based on a review of existing estimates of climate change impacts on agricultural productivity, labor productivity and the potential losses due to sea-level rise for the country, the model is used to simulate the effects of climate change on aggregate consumption, investment and welfare up to 2050. Available cost estimates for adaptation investments are employed to explore adaptation strategies.
On the methodological side, the present study overcomes the limitations of existing recursive-dynamic computable general models for climate change impact analysis by incorporating forward-looking expectations. Moreover, it extends the existing family of discrete-time intertemporal computable general equilibrium models to which our model belongs by incorporating population growth and technical progress. On the empirical side, the model is calibrated to a social accounting matrix that reflects the observed current structure of the Egyptian economy, and the climate change impact and adaptation scenarios are informed by a close review of existing quantitative estimates for the size order of impacts and the costs of adaptation measures.
A systematic cost-benefit analysis of a community-based disaster risk management project led by Practical Action in two districts of Nepal over the period 2007 to 2010.
This project aims to create and strengthen analytical and practical capacity of policy analysis in Ethiopia and to support the government in its endeavours to meet the challenges of the MDGs.
Pilot project to develop a dynamic multisectoral modelling framework for climate change impact and adaptation policy assessment.
This project involves a case-study approach to develop an economywide modeling framework for comparative analysis of climate change adaptation strategies linked to impact models.
The Foresight project Global Food and Farming Futures explores the increasing pressures on the global food system between now and 2050. The Report highlights the decisions that policy makers need to take today, and in the years ahead, to ensure that a global population rising to nine billion or more can be fed sustainably and equitably.
The project aimed to explore the short and long run impacts of imposing additional fossil fuel taxes and removing respective existing subsidies on the Vietnamese economy.
The Foresight Project on Global Food and Farming Futures addresses the question: ‘How can a future global population of 9 billion people all be fed healthily and sustainably?'
This research project contributed to Oxfam’s report and used a global multi-region model to explore a range of dynamic scenarios for the evolution of global food production, prices and trade towards 2030.
This study aimed to forecast the effects of Angola's integration into the SADC Free Trade Area and into a full SADC Customs Union on the country's indirect tax revenue.
This project reviews the effectiveness of the EU Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) at fostering exports from developing countries to the EU.
This project used a global trade model to gauge the impact of a slowdown in economic activity in the OECD on trade performance, world prices and aggregate welfare in the rest of the world.
A contribution to an analysis of the impact of prospective changes in the multilateral and regional trade environment on employment and income in Brazil.
This study looked at the impact of trade policies on Pakistan's preferential access to the EU and on Pakistan's overall trade performance.
Systematic review funded by 3ie to look at the existing evidence on what the effects of free trade zones on employment and wages
The team intends to address the question 'What is the evidence of the impacts of new trade deals on fiscal revenues and job creation in low-income countries?
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