Dirk Willenbockel - Research Fellow
(on leave 1/10/2014 - 31/03/2015)
T: +44 (0)1273 915700
Sub Saharan Africa.
Economist with experience in the areas of trade policy and regional economic integration, climate change impact and adaptation analysis, economics of low-carbon growth, global and regional food system scenario analysis, and fiscal policy analysis. Particular technical expertise in the design and application of computable general equilibrium models for forward-looking development policy analysis.
Previous research and lecturing positions in London and Berlin. Consultancy for the European Commission, World Bank, ILO, Rockefeller Foundation, UN World Food Programme, UNDP, GIZ, UK Government Office for Science.
Fossil Fuel Prices and Taxes, and Their Effects on Economic Development and Income Distribution in Viet Nam
What is the Evidence of the Impact of Tariff Reductions on Employment and Fiscal Revenue in Developing Countries?
Scenarios for Global Agriculture and Food Security Towards 2050: A Review of Recent Studies
This book explores how food production and consumption is embedded in powerful political and market forces and how these influence local actions. More details
Assessing Uncertainty Along the Climate-Crop-Economy Modeling Chain
Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate climate, crop and economic models to obtain plausible estimates of these climate change impacts More details
Agriculture and Climate Change in Global Scenarios: Why Don't the Models Agree?
This article presents climate change results and underlying determinants from a model comparison exercise with 10 of the leading global economic models that include significant representation of agriculture. More details
The Future of Food Demand: Understanding Differences in Global Economic Models
This article reviews demand modeling approaches from 10 global economic models participating in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). More details
Comparing Supply-Side Specifications in Models of Global Agriculture and the Food System
This article compares the theoretical and functional specification of production in partial equilibrium (PE) and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models of the global agricultural and food system included in the AgMIP model comparison study. More details
Why Do Global Long-term Scenarios for Agriculture Differ? An Overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison.
Artilce illustrating the results of a study where 10 global economic models that produce long-term scenarios compare a reference scenario with alternate socioeconomic, climate change, and bioenergy scenarios using a common set of key drivers. More details
Impacts of Increased Bioenergy Demand on Global Food Markets
This article shows to what extent a strong increase in ligno-cellulosic bioenergy deployment may affect agricultural markets and land-use change. More details
Evidence on the Impact of Tariff Reductions on Employment in Developing Countries: A Systematic Review
This paper analyses the evidence on the impact of tariff reductions on employment in developing countries. We carry out a systematic review of the existing empirical literature, and include both, ex post econometric evidence and ex ante Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) simulation studies. The synthesis of results suggests that the effects of tariff reductions on employment are country and trade policy specific. More details
Climate Change and Economic Growth: An Intertemporal General Equilibrium Analysis for Egypt
The study develops a multisectoral intertemporal general equilibrium model with forward-looking agents, population growth and technical progress to analyse the long-run growth prospects of Egypt in a changing climate. More details
The Determinants of Outward Processing: Evidence from Offshoring Intermediates by the European Union
This paper analyses the determinants of outward processing (OP) trade; specifically, imports of intermediates subsequent to processing abroad. A model where firms choose between OP and importing intermediates directly from a third country (generic offshoring, GO), predicts higher tariffs, lower monitoring costs and higher quality make OP more likely, while better institutions and rule of law abroad lower contractual breakdown risk under GO making OP less likely. Analysis of EU trade data from 2002 to 2008 emphasises proximity, quality differentiation and weaker rule of law as OP determinants. Results suggest relationship-specific investments and monitoring under OP may offset contractual uncertainty. More details
General Equilibrium Analysis of the COMESA-EAC-SADC Tripartite FTA
This is the report following an impact analysis to determine potential economy-wide impacts of what will be Africa's largest free trade agreement. More details
Extreme Weather Events and Crop Price Spikes in a Changing Climate: Illustrative global simulation scenarios
This study uses a global dynamic multi-region computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to explore the potential food price impacts of a number of extreme weather event scenarios in 2030 for each of the main exporting regions for rice, maize and wheat. More details
Agricultural Model Inter-comparison and Improvement Project: Summary Report on Reference Scenario Comparison
A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis of Adaptation to Climate Change in Ethiopia
This study links a multi-sectoral regionalized dynamic computable general equilibrium model of Ethiopia with a system of country-specific hydrology, crop, road and hydropower engineering models to simulate the economic impacts of climate change towards 2050. More details
A Review of Global Long-Run Food System Scenarios
Dr Dirk Willenbockel was invited by RSS to speak at their conference "Food Security for Cities". More details
Exploring Food Price Scenarios Towards 2030 with a Global Multi-Region Model
This report is a contribution to the Oxfam campaign 'GROW: Food.Life.Planet'. It explores a range of scenarios for food price increases to 2030 through the GLOBE model. More details
Growing a Better Future: Food Justice in a Resource Constrained World
The global food system works only for the few – for most of us it is broken. It leaves billions of us lacking sufficient power and knowledge about what we buy and eat and the majority of small food producers disempowered and unable to fulfil their productive potential. More details
A Cost-Benefit Analysis of Practical Action's Livelihood-Centered Disaster Risk Management Project in Nepal
A systematic cost-benefit analysis of a community-based disaster risk management project led by Practical Action in two districts of Nepal over the period 2007 to 2010. More details
Ethiopia's Growth Prospects in A Changing Climate: A Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach
This study develops a stochastic economy-wide framework for analysing economic impacts from climate change and potential adaptation policies. More details
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