GLOBAL KNOWLEDGE FOR GLOBAL CHANGE

Photo of Dirk Willenbockel

Dirk Willenbockel - Research Fellow

Globalisation
T: +44 (0)1273 915700
E: d.willenbockel@ids.ac.uk

CV

Administrator:
Stacey Townsend

Thematic Expertise:
Business; Climate Change; Low-carbon Development; Economy and Finance; Trade and Growth; Food Security; Green Transformation.

Geographic Expertise:
Sub Saharan Africa.

Economist with experience in the areas of trade policy and regional economic integration, climate change impact and adaptation analysis, economics of low-carbon growth, global and regional food system scenario analysis, and fiscal policy analysis. Particular technical expertise in the design and application of computable general equilibrium models for forward-looking development policy analysis.

Previous research and lecturing positions in London and Berlin. Consultancy for the European Commission, World Bank, ILO, Rockefeller Foundation, UN World Food Programme, UNDP, GIZ, UK Government Office for Science.

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) hosted by the Columbia University Earth Institute is a major international effort to assess the state of global agricultural modelling and to understand climate impacts on the agricultural sector.

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The study analysed the trade and welfare implications of the Cariforum Economic Partnership Agreement using a multi-regional computable general equilibrium model as well as a single-region general equilibrium model of Jamaica.

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Due to the high concentration of economic activity along the low-lying coastal zone of the Nile delta and its dependence on Nile river streamflow, Egypt's economy is highly exposed to adverse climate change.

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A systematic cost-benefit analysis of a community-based disaster risk management project led by Practical Action in two districts of Nepal over the period 2007 to 2010.

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This project aims to create and strengthen analytical and practical capacity of policy analysis in Ethiopia and to support the government in its endeavours to meet the challenges of the MDGs.

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Pilot project to develop a dynamic multisectoral modelling framework for climate change impact and adaptation policy assessment.

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This project involves a case-study approach to develop an economywide modeling framework for comparative analysis of climate change adaptation strategies linked to impact models.

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The Foresight project Global Food and Farming Futures explores the increasing pressures on the global food system between now and 2050. The Report highlights the decisions that policy makers need to take today, and in the years ahead, to ensure that a global population rising to nine billion or more can be fed sustainably and equitably.

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The project aimed to explore the short and long run impacts of imposing additional fossil fuel taxes and removing respective existing subsidies on the Vietnamese economy.

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The Foresight Project on Global Food and Farming Futures addresses the question: ‘How can a future global population of 9 billion people all be fed healthily and sustainably?'

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This research project contributed to Oxfam’s report and used a global multi-region model to explore a range of dynamic scenarios for the evolution of global food production, prices and trade towards 2030.

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This project seeks to develop a new Green Growth Diagnostics methodology and apply it to two African countries: Kenya and Ghana. These countries are the research hubs of East and West Africa and we believe that they offer a good opportunity to test our methodology in advance to their wider application to other African countries and beyond the African continent.

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This study aimed to forecast the effects of Angola's integration into the SADC Free Trade Area and into a full SADC Customs Union on the country's indirect tax revenue.

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This project reviews the effectiveness of the EU Generalised System of Preferences (GSP) at fostering exports from developing countries to the EU.

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This project used a global trade model to gauge the impact of a slowdown in economic activity in the OECD on trade performance, world prices and aggregate welfare in the rest of the world.

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A contribution to an analysis of the impact of prospective changes in the multilateral and regional trade environment on employment and income in Brazil.

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This study looked at the impact of trade policies on Pakistan's preferential access to the EU and on Pakistan's overall trade performance.

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Systematic review funded by 3ie to look at the existing evidence on what the effects of free trade zones on employment and wages

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The team intends to address the question 'What is the evidence of the impacts of new trade deals on fiscal revenues and job creation in low-income countries?

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IDS publications on international development research

Scenarios for Global Agriculture and Food Security Towards 2050: A Review of Recent Studies

This book explores how food production and consumption is embedded in powerful political and market forces and how these influence local actions. More details

IDS publications on international development research

Assessing Uncertainty Along the Climate-Crop-Economy Modeling Chain

Agricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate climate, crop and economic models to obtain plausible estimates of these climate change impacts More details

IDS publications on international development research

Agriculture and Climate Change in Global Scenarios: Why Don't the Models Agree?

This article presents climate change results and underlying determinants from a model comparison exercise with 10 of the leading global economic models that include significant representation of agriculture. More details

IDS publications on international development research

The Future of Food Demand: Understanding Differences in Global Economic Models

This article reviews demand modeling approaches from 10 global economic models participating in the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). More details

IDS publications on international development research

Comparing Supply-Side Specifications in Models of Global Agriculture and the Food System

This article compares the theoretical and functional specification of production in partial equilibrium (PE) and computable general equilibrium (CGE) models of the global agricultural and food system included in the AgMIP model comparison study. More details

IDS publications on international development research

Why Do Global Long-term Scenarios for Agriculture Differ? An Overview of the AgMIP Global Economic Model Intercomparison.

Artilce illustrating the results of a study where 10 global economic models that produce long-term scenarios compare a reference scenario with alternate socioeconomic, climate change, and bioenergy scenarios using a common set of key drivers. More details

IDS publications on international development research

Impacts of Increased Bioenergy Demand on Global Food Markets

This article shows to what extent a strong increase in ligno-cellulosic bioenergy deployment may affect agricultural markets and land-use change. More details

IDS publications on international development research

Evidence on the Impact of Tariff Reductions on Employment in Developing Countries: A Systematic Review

This paper analyses the evidence on the impact of tariff reductions on employment in developing countries. We carry out a systematic review of the existing empirical literature, and include both, ex post econometric evidence and ex ante Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) simulation studies. The synthesis of results suggests that the effects of tariff reductions on employment are country and trade policy specific. More details

IDS publications on international development research

Climate Change and Economic Growth: An Intertemporal General Equilibrium Analysis for Egypt

The study develops a multisectoral intertemporal general equilibrium model with forward-looking agents, population growth and technical progress to analyse the long-run growth prospects of Egypt in a changing climate. More details

IDS publications on international development research

The Determinants of Outward Processing: Evidence from Offshoring Intermediates by the European Union

This paper analyses the determinants of outward processing (OP) trade; specifically, imports of intermediates subsequent to processing abroad. A model where firms choose between OP and importing intermediates directly from a third country (generic offshoring, GO), predicts higher tariffs, lower monitoring costs and higher quality make OP more likely, while better institutions and rule of law abroad lower contractual breakdown risk under GO making OP less likely. Analysis of EU trade data from 2002 to 2008 emphasises proximity, quality differentiation and weaker rule of law as OP determinants. Results suggest relationship-specific investments and monitoring under OP may offset contractual uncertainty. More details

IDS publications on international development research

General Equilibrium Analysis of the COMESA-EAC-SADC Tripartite FTA

This is the report following an impact analysis to determine potential economy-wide impacts of what will be Africa's largest free trade agreement. More details

IDS publications on international development research

Extreme Weather Events and Crop Price Spikes in a Changing Climate: Illustrative global simulation scenarios

This study uses a global dynamic multi-region computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to explore the potential food price impacts of a number of extreme weather event scenarios in 2030 for each of the main exporting regions for rice, maize and wheat. More details

IDS publications on international development research

A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis of Adaptation to Climate Change in Ethiopia

This study links a multi-sectoral regionalized dynamic computable general equilibrium model of Ethiopia with a system of country-specific hydrology, crop, road and hydropower engineering models to simulate the economic impacts of climate change towards 2050. More details

IDS publications on international development research

A Review of Global Long-Run Food System Scenarios

Dr Dirk Willenbockel was invited by RSS to speak at their conference "Food Security for Cities". More details

IDS publications on international development research

Exploring Food Price Scenarios Towards 2030 with a Global Multi-Region Model

This report is a contribution to the Oxfam campaign 'GROW: Food.Life.Planet'. It explores a range of scenarios for food price increases to 2030 through the GLOBE model. More details

IDS publications on international development research

Growing a Better Future: Food Justice in a Resource Constrained World

The global food system works only for the few – for most of us it is broken. It leaves billions of us lacking sufficient power and knowledge about what we buy and eat and the majority of small food producers disempowered and unable to fulfil their productive potential. More details

IDS publications on international development research

A Cost-Benefit Analysis of Practical Action's Livelihood-Centered Disaster Risk Management Project in Nepal

A systematic cost-benefit analysis of a community-based disaster risk management project led by Practical Action in two districts of Nepal over the period 2007 to 2010. More details

IDS publications on international development research

Ethiopia's Growth Prospects in A Changing Climate: A Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach

This study develops a stochastic economy-wide framework for analysing economic impacts from climate change and potential adaptation policies. More details

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