TMSA commissioned an impact analysis to determine potential economy-wide impacts of what will be Africa’s largest free trade agreement. The study was undertaken by Dr Dirk Willenböckel from the Institute of Development Studies. It is intended to stimulate discussions within the Tripartite region among different stakeholders on regional and national level and thereby to help inform policy choices on trade integration.
TMSA released the report of the study “General Equilibrium Analysis of the COMESA-EAC-SADC Tripartite FTA” at an event of the TMSA “Regional Integration Research Network” – held in Gaborone, Botswana on 30 October 2013. The event on the TFTA was attended by participants from the private sector, civil society and development partners. Lively discussions ensued on (i) simulation scenario assumptions, especially on analysing relaxation of restrictive rule of origin; using a less conservative assumption for the trade facilitation scenario, given that the private sector is anticipating significant gains from Tripartite cooperation on trade and transport facilitation; and (ii) potential policy measures to deal with winners and losers, as well as supplementary measures to facilitate small-scale trade and deal with the resolution of non-tariff barriers to trade.
The impact analysis considers eight TFTA simulation scenarios. These scenarios differ in their level of ambition in terms of regional coverage, product coverage and trade facilitation effort.
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