There is no doubt that we have a greater chance of supporting development in Africa, and broader global challenges, if the two super powers of the world cooperate with each other and pull together in the same direction. IDS Research Fellow and Director of the IDS China Initiative, Jing Gu, examines the issues at hand for China-US cooperation in an era of unprecedented technological change and international competition.
As the world’s most important bilateral relationship of the 21st century, the U.S. and China are still yet to figure out their terms of engagement with each other and the rest of the world.
Development landscape across Africa
By 2050, the population of Western Africa will exceed the population of Europe. The prospect of whether economic transformation in Africa will be of sufficient magnitude and character to absorb the massive increase in Africa’s labour force in the coming decades is perhaps the single most important question of the 21st century. It ranks alongside and will interact with climate change as the development challenge of our era.
This issue will have been front of mind at the recent US-Africa Leaders‘ Summit, which demonstrated the interconnectedness of the world, as well as the connections between world challenges. The whole African development landscape has undergone significant change in the past decade. The emergence of countries, such as China, India and Brazil, have given rise to crucial alterations in the relationships, approaches and financing models of development cooperation, with related implications for African development policy and practice.
Both the U.S. and China face increasingly challenging domestic political environments. Insecurity, defensiveness and overreaction have become the main features of their bilateral diplomacy in recent years. However, it will be extremely difficult to achieve global public goods without the active participation of the two leading global powers, China and the US have much to share from their respective experiences of development to help strengthen structures to support population health and welfare in response to the rapid urbanisation in countries across Africa.
A new diplomacy is required that recognises the inherent complexity of issues and the changed realities of sustainable development governance, with the US–China relationship playing a defining role in tackling these shared challenges. Their cooperation will directly influence the lives of billions of people.
Shared domestic and international goals
Both the US and China have domestic and international goals which could favour a new sustainable development diplomacy. China’s size and strategic importance mean that initiatives such as the Global Development Initiative and the Belt and Road Initiative, have become increasingly critical for global development. This is especially true in the context of Africa, where China’s actions and investments, alone and in cooperation with other countries including the United States, will have a major influence on capacities to achieve multiple SDGs in a range of low-income countries.
At the same time, African agency in shaping its own development process at the national, regional, and continental levels will be crucial to ensure that Chinese development finance yields inclusive and sustainable development, and helps to build public management capacities and integrity. The creation of joint approaches and systemic processes at the policy and operational levels will be essential. This may be the opportunity to bring a shared trilateral platform into being, under the African Union umbrella and supported by the African Development Bank and the UN Economic Commission for Africa.
International cooperation for African policy
As leading global powers, the US and China must accommodate each other to find a new balance and explore the ways to work together to support international cooperation for development. But are there potential areas where the two countries can cooperate in regard to Africa policy?
First, there is no crucial conflict regarding the fundamental national interests of the US and China in Africa. Second, both China and the US are facing the same challenges: climate change, maritime security, in particular the rise of piracy in the Gulf of Guinea, infrastructure development and a public health crisis. There is no doubt that we have more chances to find solutions if the two superpowers of the world cooperate with each other and work in the same direction.
There are several key economic development challenges across Africa, including increasing the diversity of the continent’s exports, notably towards manufactured goods, as well as generating a higher share of processing value added in traditional resource and agricultural and food exports. For this shift to impact on poverty alleviation it needs to generate jobs for low skilled labour as well as opportunities to develop higher skilled jobs. That requires inward investment (bringing know how and technology) and market development both in Africa and among developed and emerging markets.
Complementary roles in trade and investment
Improvements to the business environment and providing effective education and training policies, alongside increased investment in hard and soft infrastructure will be key if Africa is to attract investment and skills. The US and China are viewed as playing complementary roles in Africa in both trade and investment in the eyes of their own and African governments.
For example, the US brings a lot of experience of investment across Africa. It is also investing in African enterprises, diaspora engagement and brings expertise in financial services and in aid related investments in hard and soft infrastructure for regional and continental economic integration. Chinese investment in Africa is increasingly oriented towards meeting domestic demand and growing Chinese investment in infrastructure, transport and energy.
However, more investment is required with the financial gap estimated to be in the range US$68–$108 billion for African infrastructure. China and the US could cooperate on financing clean energy infrastructure through project bonds, project equity, joint contracting and co-financing. The US and China could also work together to help African countries improve their customs, tax, inspection and quarantine facilities as well as through efficiency gains and improved trade facilitation through aid for trade.
Growing unemployment and skills gaps
Unemployment and a skills gap in Africa is growing bigger as its population explodes. The US and China could invest in jointly funded facilities, where demanded by local governments, to identify local sector-specific skill shortages which are preventing the use of local labour addressing both individual employees and the lack of entrepreneurial skills that stifle the availably of local sub-contractors in support of foreign firms investing.
This investment can be supported by the provision of general transferable skills training aimed at the poorest for use in light manufacturing. This will strengthen Africa’s production of higher value-added goods as well as to provide better market access for African countries’ exports.
China and the US could also help strengthen African agriculture infrastructure, cultivate agricultural markets, help speed up production times, reduce costs and improve regional agricultural markets by advancing regional and sub-regional integration.
“It takes two to tango – but it takes three to dance!’ – Opening communications channels
To achieve this it is important for the US and China to develop communication channels with on their African policies, including on poverty reduction. For example, the two countries should hold an annual high-level dialogue with African partners through which they can exchange views on concrete measures to support African development and possibilities to co-operate more effectively with Africa.
The growing conflict, competition and cooperation will be with us for some time. International cooperation will only be effective if the world’s two largest economies can reach understandings on common interests above all on issues such as climate change, re-building from the pandemic and large-scale development projects in Africa. A bit of optimism is needed in an era of uncertainty and interlinked global challenges.
