Journal Article


A Dynamic General Equilibrium Analysis of Adaptation to Climate Change in Ethiopia

Published on 1 August 2012

This study links a multi-sectoral regionalized dynamic computable general equilibrium model of Ethiopia with a system of country-specific hydrology, crop, road and hydropower engineering models to simulate the economic impacts of climate change towards 2050.

In the absence of externally funded policy-driven adaptation investments Ethiopia’s GDP in the 2040s will be up to 10 percent below the counterfactual no-climate change baseline. Suitably scaled adaptation measures could restore aggregate welfare to baseline levels at a cost that is substantially lower than the welfare losses due to climate change.


Dirk Willenbockel

Research Fellow

Publication details

Robinson, S., Willenbockel, D. and Strzepek, K.
Review of Development Economics, volume 16, issue 3


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