Journal Article


Ethiopia’s Growth Prospects in A Changing Climate: A Stochastic General Equilibrium Approach

Published on 16 January 2011

This study develops a stochastic economy-wide framework for analysing economic impacts from climate change and potential adaptation policies. For the stochastic analysis, particular attention is paid to the development of a prior subjective distribution of future climate outcomes. The approach is applied to Ethiopia. The results highlight the importance of cumulative processes and rates of growth. In particular, if climate change affects the rate of technical change and the rate of accumulation of capital, the implications become significant over time. Furthermore, analysis of the variability of the components of GDP indicates that aggregate consumption always has a higher coefficient of variation than the other macro aggregates. The burden of adjustment appears to fall more heavily on consumers. Poor consumers are likely to experience increased vulnerability.


Dirk Willenbockel

Research Fellow

Sherman Robinson

Honorary Associate

Publication details

Arndt, C.; Robinson, S. and Willenbockel, D.
Global Environmental Change, volume 21, issue 2


About this publication


Related content