We know climate change is happening, but it’s uncertain as to how the impacts will play out, to what extent, where, affecting whom. In the sixth chapter of Navigating Uncertainty: Radical Rethinking for a Turbulent World, I again look at models and how they act to mutually construct a particular set of global policy responses, often ignoring the challenges on the ground.
From the promise of prediction to the realities on the ground
As the chapter notes, “Climate change is perhaps the most challenging source of uncertainty faced by humanity today…. Climate events can upset stabilised knowledge about economies and financial systems; new technological innovations that facilitate transitions to low-carbon economies carry with them many uncertainties and so regulatory challenges; extreme climate-induced shocks can test any critical infrastructure and those trying to generate reliable supply of critical services; climate change can result in transformations of environments that entail the emergence of pandemic zoonoses and disasters and emergencies are frequently made worse by climate change, as droughts or floods for example become more extreme. Climate change therefore impinges on all facets of life, generating new uncertainties, even if we are now certain that change is accelerating. Yet different people – from UN officials to climate modellers to fishers and farmers… experience climate change in very different ways.”
This article is from Zimbabweland, a blog written by IDS Research Fellow Ian Scoones. Zimbabweland focuses on issues related to rural livelihoods and land reform in Zimbabwe.
