Global Food Price Scenarios Towards 2030 With a Global Multi-Region Model

Oxfam published a report which analysed the underlying causes of hunger and malnutrition in developing countries. The report draws on research carried out in a number of Oxfam programmes, aiming to address the challenges of combating malnutrition at the same time as feeding a growing world population in the face of climate change and wider ecological constraints.

Led by Dirk Willenbockel, this research project contributed to Oxfam’s report and used a global multi-region model to explore a range of dynamic scenarios for the evolution of global food production, prices and trade towards 2030.

The scenarios of interest to Oxfam include:

  • Business-as-usual scenarios for 2020 and 2030 under current growth and productivity projections. The focus is on predicted price increases for the major traded agricultural food commodities in sub-Saharan Africa, Central America, North Africa, and other low-income countries and regions identified by Oxfam; on the domestic supply responses in these regions; on international trade in agricultural commodities; and on food consumption per capita.
  • Scenarios of climate change impacts on agricultural productivity by crop and their consequences for food production and prices in sub-Saharan African regions and other developing countries;
  • Alternative scenarios in which national agricultural productivity rises above predicted trend levels.

In addition, the project analysed developing countries’ present exposure to world crop price surges using the full geographical disaggregation of the GTAP 7.1 database.

Project details

start date
15 March 2011
end date
30 April 2011


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