In common with many other African countries, the Republic of South Sudan is increasingly experiencing devastating floods linked to climate change. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) and El Niño regulate the climate of Equatorial Eastern Africa. In 2019, a dipole warming in the western Indian Ocean, worsened by climate change, created higher than average evaporation off the African coastline. This water vapour fell inland as rainfall over Ethiopia, Somalia, Kenya, Sudan and South Sudan, causing massive floods. Since then, in the Sudd wetlands of central and north-eastern South Sudan, seasonal rains have been falling on already saturated land and adding to the floodwater. Large areas of the country have been submerged year-round and there have been sudden floods in new areas unaccustomed to them.
At the same time, South Sudan has been struggling to move towards peace in the wake of its 2013-18 civil war, with many armed groups still fighting, and historical conflicts with Sudan dating back decades. The impact of flooding on the security environment and overall fragility of South Sudan has received high-profile attention. The severe floods – together with recurrent outbreaks of violence, weak governance, persistent underlying poverty and a lack of basic infrastructure and services – have created a complex humanitarian crisis and prevent the young nation (which gained independence in 2011) from achieving sustainable and equitable peace, resilience and development. The interconnectedness of these dynamics, and the need to approach these problems holistically, is increasingly acknowledged by high-level actors through discussion around the Humanitarian-Development-Peace (HDP) nexus, sometimes called the ‘triple nexus’.
This brief describes the interconnected problems of the HDP nexus in the context of South Sudan through a focus on flooding. It also has wider relevance to other countries in the region, such as the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Sudan, that are experiencing similar self-reinforcing cycles of humanitarian, peace and developmental crises, exacerbated by floods. In particular, the brief describes the multidimensional impacts of flooding on peace, health, livelihoods and governance. The brief also provides an overview of flood response efforts and innovations, and public attitudes towards them. The brief emphasises the need to link short-term humanitarian efforts with longer-term peacebuilding and development efforts through meaningful collaboration between actors working in these often-siloed spaces.
This brief is available in English, French and Arabic.
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