The project contributes to a collaboration between the International Labour Organization and the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace aimed at providing a detailed analysis of the impact of prospective changes in the multilateral and regional trade environment on employment and income in Brazil.
A global computable general equilibrium model is used to explore the impact of a potential WTO Doha Development Round agreement, an enlargement and deepening of the MERCOSUR customs union, and other potential South-South trade agreements, including a free trade area among India, Brazil and South Africa (IBSA) as well as preferential trade relations between IBSA and China. Furthermore, the simulation analysis studies the implications of rapid manufacturing productivity growth in China and India for Brazil’s trade and employment patterns.
A report is produced to disseminate the research results and policy implications. The intended audience of the report is policy makers, direct stakeholders including business and labour, and the interested community in Brazil and internationally.